Industry Predictions

When one thinks of a mortgage, one probably assumes that a group called the Mortgage Bankers Association would have their finger on the pulse of that topic. So, when the MBA puts out predictions for 2024, they can generally be considered a pretty reliable source. And that’s exactly what they’ve done. 

As reported by Realtor.com: Mortgage rates are over 7.5% as of mid-October, but expect rates to fall to 6.1% by the end of 2024, according to a forecast by the Mortgage Bankers Association. The group also expects the 30-year mortgage rate to fall to 5.5% by the end of 2025. 

Trusted Experts

Chief economist and senior vice president for the group, Mike Fratantoni, spoke at the MBA’s annual convention in Philadelphia on Sunday. Citing a slowing US economy as a push to drive down rates, Fratantoni said, “The Fed’s hiking cycle is likely nearing an end, but while Fed officials have indicated that additional rate hikes might not be needed, rate cuts may not come as soon or proceed as rapidly as previously expected.”

What the Mortgage Bankers Association is doing by wording their prediction this way is tempering would-be buyers’ hopes that the market will essentially “crash” like it did in 2008, resulting in pandemic-era rates again. Those numbers in the twos and threes are likely history, though with patience and time, that rate in the fives may be a real possibility in just two years time.